<div>What NEWS... Appears that Gavin the Younger ALMOST became the youngest Royal Huntsman....</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Way to Go GAVIN...</div>
<div>Keep on practicing. You have less than 6 months before the next Royal Huntsman Tourney. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Leofwine<br><br> </div>
<div><span class="gmail_quote">On 10/6/08, <b class="gmail_sendername">Mike Wyvill</b> <<a href="mailto:wyvillmike@hotmail.com">wyvillmike@hotmail.com</a>> wrote:</span>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="PADDING-LEFT: 1ex; MARGIN: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; BORDER-LEFT: #ccc 1px solid">
<div>thank you your Excellency.<br> <br>Huzzah to Ironwyrm!!<br> <br>EdV<br><br><br>
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Date: Sun, 5 Oct 2008 15:01:16 -0700<br>From: <a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="mailto:mg1m@swbell.net" target="_blank">mg1m@swbell.net</a><br>To: <a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="mailto:ansteorra-archery@lists.ansteorra.org" target="_blank">ansteorra-archery@lists.ansteorra.org</a><br>
Subject: Re: [Ansteorra-archery] Royal Huntsman<br><br>
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<div>William Blackdragon called Ironwyrm is the new Royal Huntsman, in a close sudden death tie breaker with Gavin the Younger</div>
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<div>Michel<br> </div>
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<div style="FONT-SIZE: 12pt; FONT-FAMILY: times new roman, new york, times, serif">----- Original Message ----<br>From: Mike Wyvill <<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="mailto:wyvillmike@hotmail.com" target="_blank">wyvillmike@hotmail.com</a>><br>
To: Archery within the Kingdom of Ansteorra <<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="mailto:ansteorra-archery@lists.ansteorra.org" target="_blank">ansteorra-archery@lists.ansteorra.org</a>><br>
Sent: Sunday, October 5, 2008 4:26:04 PM<br>Subject: [Ansteorra-archery] Royal Huntsman<br><br>Any word on the tourney?<br> <br>EdV<br><br><br>
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<td><a style="FONT-SIZE: 9pt; COLOR: #0184cb; TEXT-DECORATION: none" onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="http://im.live.com/Messenger/IM/Home/?source=EML_WLHM_GreaterGood" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><img style="BORDER-TOP-STYLE: none; BORDER-RIGHT-STYLE: none; BORDER-LEFT-STYLE: none; BORDER-BOTTOM-STYLE: none" alt="i'm"> EMAILING FOR THE GREATER GOOD<br>
<span style="PADDING-RIGHT: 24px; PADDING-LEFT: 24px; FONT-SIZE: 8pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 0px; COLOR: #3fb555; PADDING-TOP: 0px; TEXT-DECORATION: underline">Join me</span></a></td></tr></tbody></table><br><br>> From: <a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="mailto:kentheriot@ravenboymusic.com" target="_blank">kentheriot@ravenboymusic.com</a><br>
> To: <a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="mailto:ansteorra-archery@lists.ansteorra.org" target="_blank">ansteorra-archery@lists.ansteorra.org</a><br>> Date: Sat, 4 Oct 2008 17:40:06 -0500<br>
> Subject: Re: [Ansteorra-archery] Archery Discussion<br>> <br>> Eadric,<br>> <br>> You were in a better position than most to see things from a birds-eye view.<br>> So if you say there were official reports of archers hitting bystanders, I<br>
> believe you. I apologize for the following, but I'm going to get a little<br>> philosophical. <br>> <br>> I was in the Air Force for 24 years. Safety is a HUGE concern, so I saw<br>> some good things in the name of safety, but I also see some really whacky<br>
> things not based at all on reality. Living with that for all those years,<br>> combined with the fact that I was simultaneously teaching the proper use of<br>> "metrics" to all ranks (using the scientific method...everyone's favorite<br>
> thing...probability and statistics:)) for better decision-making, led me to<br>> an inescapable conclusion. Humans are really quick to see patterns and make<br>> judgments. It was what kept us alive for centuries. If we have to THINK<br>
> when a tiger is running at us, we die. But it was also why women were burnt<br>> to death when the neighboring farm's crops failed just a few hundred years<br>> ago. The town thought the woman must have caused the plight because the<br>
> same year she moved in, the crops failed. In order to fill in the logic<br>> gap, they had to make her a "witch." If I could give one piece of<br>> life-advice to every child, it would be this: "understand the difference<br>
> between correlation and causation." THAT (relatively) simple concept, more<br>> than any other, can change the world.<br>> <br>> Humans in general have more of a tendency to see patterns where they DON'T<br>
> exist, than to recognize them when they do. And when it comes to<br>> safety...well you'd better not argue! There were many times in the AF when<br>> formal reports would say "safety incidents are "up" so we must act," but the<br>
> real data did not show that safety incidents were actually trending in<br>> EITHER direction. There was almost never any actual probabilistic data to<br>> support saying "people are less safe this year than they were last year."<br>
> So any action to "correct" the problem was not likely to address any root<br>> causes. Frequently the "action" actually made things worse for the<br>> organization as a system (increasing costs for extra training, less<br>
> available time for value-added activities due to mandatory safety days,<br>> etc.) but action there must be, even without a "statistically significant"<br>> shift in the average number of incidents. It sure as heck made a lot of<br>
> people feel good inside to "act," especially if the action happened to<br>> correspond to a random (i.e. without cause...not indicative of a systemic<br>> change) down-swing in the number of safety incidents. <br>
> <br>> If anyone dared suggest that the "corrective action" was ineffective<br>> (probably even harmful), they were immediately painted with the "he doesn't<br>> care about safety" brush. And that turns very quickly into "he can't be<br>
> trusted to look out for anyone's well-being," "he is unsafe," or worse. <br>> <br>> My point here is that people aren't very good at the whole<br>> "cause-and-effect" analysis thing at the best of times. But bring the<br>
> entire equation into the realm of "safety" and "liability," and whatever<br>> logic may still be in the mix goes out the window, and cries for the use of<br>> simple analysis are met with "don't you dare suggest inaction in the face of<br>
> danger...regardless of the fact that it will solve NOTHING, and will<br>> probably make other things worse! It makes us feel good, darn it. We DID<br>> something. We ACTED."<br>> <br>> All I'm looking for is some reason to do what we do. Any one person can see<br>
> a pattern in, say, 4 or 5 people (the influence of the tiger again), that<br>> will make them believe those folks are better archers BECAUSE we gave them<br>> extra training. But there is literally NO WAY to prove that. Those people<br>
> may have been just as good/safe without the extra training. One would need<br>> to set up blind trials with random samples large enough to make results<br>> statistically significant in order to make any pronouncements based on<br>
> evidence. <br>> <br>> We run the risk of damaging or destroying the "system" (in this case Combat<br>> Archery) by taking action well-beyond what is truly needed, all in the name<br>> of safety. The systemic risk would be the reduction of interest in CA,<br>
> hence the reduction in archer-count, and eventual collapse of CA altogether,<br>> due to unrealistically high barriers-to-entry. It may be that the barriers<br>> are NOT too high, and even seem too low for some. But we won't know, we<br>
> CAN'T know, without proper data.<br>> <br>> So...if we're going to fly blind anyway, why not hit the "reset" button, and<br>> set the bar where it SEEMS to strike a good balance between safety and the<br>
> encouragement of CA? Then we can adjust our methods....but only when based<br>> on real evidence.<br>> <br>> YIS<br>> Kenneth <br>> <br>> -----Original Message-----<br>> From: Eadric Anstapa [mailto:<a onclick="return top.js.OpenExtLink(window,event,this)" href="mailto:eadric@scabrewer.com" target="_blank">eadric@scabrewer.com</a>] <br>
> Sent: Friday, October 03, 2008 12:27 PM<br>> To: Archery within the Kingdom of Ansteorra<br>> Subject: Re: [Ansteorra-archery] Archery Discussion<br>> <br>> Sir Kenneth, there have been official reports of archers shooting out of <br>
> the battlefield. But mostly they don't get reported unless they hit <br>> bystanders. The have been official reports of folks shooting off the <br>> battlefield and hitting bystanders and I have personally had to revoke <br>
> authorizations for archers who repeatedly did this and have had sit <br>> through more than one marshals court where we addressed the issue. <br>> Every time it happens it adds much fuel to the folks who are fanning the <br>
> fire to do away with CA completely.<br>> <br>> There has never been any work that I am aware of to try and equate the <br>> offenders and the structure of the authorization process they went <br>> through. I can tell you that in my experience the repeat offenders tend <br>
> to be less experienced combatants.<br>> <br>> While we need not "require" a buddy system while authorizing folks I <br>> have found it to be one of the most effective ways of training and <br>> authorizing new archers. If I buddy them up with an experienced archer <br>
> on the field there is somebody right there watching them that can <br>> hopefully keep them from doing anything dangerous and I believe that the <br>> best way of learning most skills is experientially. While they are <br>
> paired up with an experienced archer that I know I can trust to watch <br>> over then and give me good feedback that give me as the authorizing <br>> marshal the freedom to stand back at watch them at a distance and see <br>
> how they act and react to the overall battle which is not something I <br>> might not necessarily see if I was personally right here in armor <br>> shooting with them.<br>> <br>> Regards,<br>> <br>> -EA<br>
> <br>> Ken Theriot wrote:<br>> > I honestly don't think there is any data on correlations between<br>> situations<br>> > where a bystander was hit, and the "strictness" of the shooter's<br>
> > authorization process. In fact, I'd like to see "official" data (as in<br>> > officially filed SCA reports) where a bystander in a legal area was hit.<br>> > I'm not saying it doesn't exist, I'd just like to see it if it does. Then<br>
> > we can act from a position of real knowledge. If there is no correlation,<br>> > then there is no logic to the presupposition that "more training and<br>> > observation prior to authorization will reduce safety incidents."<br>
> ><br>> > Will bystanders sometimes get hit by a stray combat arrow? Probably. The<br>> > question we NEED answered before we assume it only (or even usually)<br>> happens<br>> > because the archer was not properly trained, is whether there is any data<br>
> to<br>> > support that assertion.<br>> ><br>> > I'd be willing to bet large sums of cash that we would see no change in<br>> the<br>> > number of spectators hit if we err a little LESS on the side of caution.<br>
> > I'm absolutely not suggesting that we turn someone loose on the field whom<br>> > we have not seen demonstrate the minimum requirements (as described<br>> below).<br>> > Both Eadric and I are saying that it needn't require participation in<br>
> > multiple melee/archery "wars," it needn't require a "buddy" separate from<br>> > the authorizing marshal to observe all day, etc. Those are restrictions<br>> > some have assumed are mandatory. <br>
> ><br>> > If I have spent enough time talking to the candidate to ensure they can<br>> > repeat the rules back to me and understand them, and observing their<br>> actions<br>> > in a few melee scenarios (enough to allow me to see if they can control<br>
> > their shots, not poke someone in the eye with their bow, and not shoot<br>> > arrows toward the onlookers, etc.), then I'm gonna authorize.<br>> ><br>> > Reasonable assurance using logical procedures based on actual evidence is<br>
> > what we need. Any more than that and we DO make it too hard, especially<br>> if<br>> > it is merely a response to perceived political pressure.<br>> ><br>> > YIS,<br>> ><br>> > Kenneth<br>
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