<div dir="ltr">And a golden acorn to boot! Congratulations Brother Ironwyrm, it sounds like a well earned and hard fought competition. My warm wishes to all who vied for this honor.<br><br><br>-JP<br><br><br><br><br><div class="gmail_quote">
On Mon, Oct 6, 2008 at 4:18 PM, William Black Dragon <span dir="ltr"><<a href="mailto:ironwyrm@sbcglobal.net">ironwyrm@sbcglobal.net</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0.8ex; padding-left: 1ex;">
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr><td style="font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-variant: inherit; font-weight: inherit; font-size: inherit; line-height: inherit; font-size-adjust: inherit; font-stretch: inherit;" valign="top">
<div>
<div>Aye he did! I would also predict that shall soon become a </div>
<div>reality. Gavin the Younger will very likely become our </div>
<div>youngest Royal Huntsman, especially if he continues to</div>
<div>account himself as well as he did upon the target range </div>
<div>yesterday. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I only credit yesterday's win more to tricks of the wind and </div>
<div>dumb luck then my own rusty skills. Congratulations on a </div>
<div>most impressive display of archery skill Gavin. We expect </div>
<div>great days ahead for archery within Ansteorra with archers </div>
<div>such as you as it's future!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thanks to all for your kind words on the win, it was </div>
<div>completely unexpected as I was sore and bruised from the </div>
<div>melees, have spent little time at practice, and my equipment </div>
<div>was in poor condition at best. I guess even a blind pig does </div>
<div>find an acorn some days!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Regards,</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Ironwyrm</div>
<div><br><br>--- On <b>Mon, 10/6/08, Wayne Law <i><<a href="mailto:dragonlaw1@gmail.com" target="_blank">dragonlaw1@gmail.com</a>></i></b> wrote:<br></div>
<blockquote style="border-left: 2px solid rgb(16, 16, 255); padding-left: 5px; margin-left: 5px;">From: Wayne Law <<a href="mailto:dragonlaw1@gmail.com" target="_blank">dragonlaw1@gmail.com</a>><div class="Ih2E3d">
<br>Subject: Re: [<span><span><span>Ansteorra</span></span></span>-archery] Royal Huntsman<br></div><div class="Ih2E3d">To: "Archery within the Kingdom of Ansteorra" <<a href="mailto:ansteorra-archery@lists.ansteorra.org" target="_blank">ansteorra-archery@lists.ansteorra.org</a>><br>
</div>Date: Monday, October 6, 2008, 2:44 PM<div><div></div><div class="Wj3C7c"><br><br>
<div>
<div>What NEWS... Appears that Gavin the Younger ALMOST became the youngest Royal Huntsman....</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Way to Go GAVIN...</div>
<div>Keep on practicing. You have less than 6 months before the next Royal Huntsman Tourney. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Leofwine<br><br> </div>
<div><span class="gmail_quote">On 10/6/08, <b class="gmail_sendername">Mike Wyvill</b> <<a href="mailto:wyvillmike@hotmail.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">wyvillmike@hotmail.com</a>> wrote:</span>
<blockquote class="gmail_quote" style="border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); margin: 0px 0px 0px 0.8ex; padding-left: 1ex;">
<div>thank you your Excellency.<br> <br>Huzzah to Ironwyrm!!<br> <br>EdV<br><br><br>
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Date: Sun, 5 Oct 2008 15:01:16 -0700<br>From: <a href="mailto:mg1m@swbell.net" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">mg1m@swbell.net</a><br>To: <a href="mailto:ansteorra-archery@lists.ansteorra.org" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">ansteorra-archery@lists.ansteorra.org</a><br>
Subject: Re: [Ansteorra-archery] Royal Huntsman<br><br>
<div style="font-size: 14pt; font-family: times new roman,new york,times,serif;">
<div>William Blackdragon called Ironwyrm is the new Royal Huntsman, in a close sudden death tie breaker with Gavin the Younger</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Michel<br> </div>
<div style="font-size: 14pt; font-family: times new roman,new york,times,serif;"><br>
<div style="font-size: 12pt; font-family: times new roman,new york,times,serif;">----- Original Message ----<br>From: Mike Wyvill <<a href="mailto:wyvillmike@hotmail.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">wyvillmike@hotmail.com</a>><br>
To: Archery within the Kingdom of Ansteorra <<a href="mailto:ansteorra-archery@lists.ansteorra.org" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">ansteorra-archery@lists.ansteorra.org</a>><br>Sent: Sunday, October 5, 2008 4:26:04 PM<br>
Subject: [Ansteorra-archery] Royal Huntsman<br><br>Any word on the tourney?<br> <br>EdV<br><br><br>
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<span style="padding: 0px 24px; font-size: 8pt; color: rgb(63, 181, 85); text-decoration: underline;">Join me</span></a></td></tr></tbody></table><br><br>> From: <a href="mailto:kentheriot@ravenboymusic.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">kentheriot@ravenboymusic.com</a><br>
> To: <a href="mailto:ansteorra-archery@lists.ansteorra.org" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">ansteorra-archery@lists.ansteorra.org</a><br>> Date: Sat, 4 Oct 2008 17:40:06 -0500<br>> Subject: Re: [Ansteorra-archery] Archery Discussion<br>
> <br>> Eadric,<br>> <br>> You were in a better position than
most to see things from a birds-eye view.<br>> So if you say there were official reports of archers hitting bystanders, I<br>> believe you. I apologize for the following, but I'm going to get a little<br>> philosophical. <br>
> <br>> I was in the Air Force for 24 years. Safety is a HUGE concern, so I saw<br>> some good things in the name of safety, but I also see some really whacky<br>> things not based at all on reality. Living with that for all those years,<br>
> combined with the fact that I was simultaneously teaching the proper use of<br>> "metrics" to all ranks (using the scientific method...everyone's favorite<br>> thing...probability and statistics:)) for better decision-making, led me to<br>
> an inescapable conclusion. Humans are really quick to see patterns and make<br>> judgments. It was what kept us alive for centuries. If we have to THINK<br>> when a tiger is running at us, we die. But it was also why
women were burnt<br>> to death when the neighboring farm's crops failed just a few hundred years<br>> ago. The town thought the woman must have caused the plight because the<br>> same year she moved in, the crops failed. In order to fill in the logic<br>
> gap, they had to make her a "witch." If I could give one piece of<br>> life-advice to every child, it would be this: "understand the difference<br>> between correlation and causation." THAT (relatively) simple concept, more<br>
> than any other, can change the world.<br>> <br>> Humans in general have more of a tendency to see patterns where they DON'T<br>> exist, than to recognize them when they do. And when it comes to<br>> safety...well you'd better not argue! There were many times in the AF when<br>
> formal reports would say "safety incidents are "up" so we must act," but the<br>> real data did not show that safety incidents were actually trending in<br>>
EITHER direction. There was almost never any actual probabilistic data to<br>> support saying "people are less safe this year than they were last year."<br>> So any action to "correct" the problem was not likely to address any root<br>
> causes. Frequently the "action" actually made things worse for the<br>> organization as a system (increasing costs for extra training, less<br>> available time for value-added activities due to mandatory safety days,<br>
> etc.) but action there must be, even without a "statistically significant"<br>> shift in the average number of incidents. It sure as heck made a lot of<br>> people feel good inside to "act," especially if the action happened to<br>
> correspond to a random (i.e. without cause...not indicative of a systemic<br>> change) down-swing in the number of safety incidents. <br>> <br>> If anyone dared suggest that the "corrective action" was ineffective<br>
> (probably even
harmful), they were immediately painted with the "he doesn't<br>> care about safety" brush. And that turns very quickly into "he can't be<br>> trusted to look out for anyone's well-being," "he is unsafe," or worse. <br>
> <br>> My point here is that people aren't very good at the whole<br>> "cause-and-effect" analysis thing at the best of times. But bring the<br>> entire equation into the realm of "safety" and "liability," and whatever<br>
> logic may still be in the mix goes out the window, and cries for the use of<br>> simple analysis are met with "don't you dare suggest inaction in the face of<br>> danger...regardless of the fact that it will solve NOTHING, and will<br>
> probably make other things worse! It makes us feel good, darn it. We DID<br>> something. We ACTED."<br>> <br>> All I'm looking for is some reason to do what we do. Any one person can see<br>> a pattern in, say, 4 or 5 people (the influence of
the tiger again), that<br>> will make them believe those folks are better archers BECAUSE we gave them<br>> extra training. But there is literally NO WAY to prove that. Those people<br>> may have been just as good/safe without the extra training. One would need<br>
> to set up blind trials with random samples large enough to make results<br>> statistically significant in order to make any pronouncements based on<br>> evidence. <br>> <br>> We run the risk of damaging or destroying the "system" (in this case Combat<br>
> Archery) by taking action well-beyond what is truly needed, all in the name<br>> of safety. The systemic risk would be the reduction of interest in CA,<br>> hence the reduction in archer-count, and eventual collapse of CA altogether,<br>
> due to unrealistically high barriers-to-entry. It may be that the barriers<br>> are NOT too high, and even seem too low for some. But we won't know, we<br>> CAN'T
know, without proper data.<br>> <br>> So...if we're going to fly blind anyway, why not hit the "reset" button, and<br>> set the bar where it SEEMS to strike a good balance between safety and the<br>
> encouragement of CA? Then we can adjust our methods....but only when based<br>> on real evidence.<br>> <br>> YIS<br>> Kenneth <br>> <br>> -----Original Message-----<br>> From: Eadric Anstapa [mailto:<a href="mailto:eadric@scabrewer.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">eadric@scabrewer.com</a>] <br>
> Sent: Friday, October 03, 2008 12:27 PM<br>> To: Archery within the Kingdom of Ansteorra<br>> Subject: Re: [Ansteorra-archery] Archery Discussion<br>> <br>> Sir Kenneth, there have been official reports of archers shooting out of <br>
> the battlefield. But mostly they don't get reported unless they hit <br>> bystanders. The have been official reports of folks shooting off the <br>> battlefield and hitting
bystanders and I have personally had to revoke <br>> authorizations for archers who repeatedly did this and have had sit <br>> through more than one marshals court where we addressed the issue. <br>> Every time it happens it adds much fuel to the folks who are fanning the <br>
> fire to do away with CA completely.<br>> <br>> There has never been any work that I am aware of to try and equate the <br>> offenders and the structure of the authorization process they went <br>> through. I can tell you that in my experience the repeat offenders tend <br>
> to be less experienced combatants.<br>> <br>> While we need not "require" a buddy system while authorizing folks I <br>> have found it to be one of the most effective ways of training and <br>> authorizing new archers. If I buddy them up with an experienced archer <br>
> on the field there is somebody right there watching them that can <br>> hopefully keep them from
doing anything dangerous and I believe that the <br>> best way of learning most skills is experientially. While they are <br>> paired up with an experienced archer that I know I can trust to watch <br>> over then and give me good feedback that give me as the authorizing <br>
> marshal the freedom to stand back at watch them at a distance and see <br>> how they act and react to the overall battle which is not something I <br>> might not necessarily see if I was personally right here in armor <br>
> shooting with them.<br>> <br>> Regards,<br>> <br>> -EA<br>> <br>> Ken Theriot wrote:<br>> > I honestly don't think there is any data on correlations between<br>> situations<br>> > where a bystander was hit, and the "strictness" of the shooter's<br>
> > authorization process. In fact, I'd like to see "official" data (as in<br>> > officially filed SCA reports) where a bystander in a legal area was
hit.<br>> > I'm not saying it doesn't exist, I'd just like to see it if it does. Then<br>> > we can act from a position of real knowledge. If there is no correlation,<br>> > then there is no logic to the presupposition that "more training and<br>
> > observation prior to authorization will reduce safety incidents."<br>> ><br>> > Will bystanders sometimes get hit by a stray combat arrow? Probably. The<br>> > question we NEED answered before we assume it only (or even usually)<br>
> happens<br>> > because the archer was not properly trained, is whether there is any data<br>> to<br>> > support that assertion.<br>> ><br>> > I'd be willing to bet large sums of cash that we would see no change in<br>
> the<br>> > number of spectators hit if we err a little LESS on the side of caution.<br>> > I'm absolutely not suggesting that we turn someone loose on the field whom<br>>
> we have not seen demonstrate the minimum requirements (as described<br>> below).<br>> > Both Eadric and I are saying that it needn't require participation in<br>> > multiple melee/archery "wars," it needn't require a "buddy" separate from<br>
> > the authorizing marshal to observe all day, etc. Those are restrictions<br>> > some have assumed are mandatory. <br>> ><br>> > If I have spent enough time talking to the candidate to ensure they can<br>
> > repeat the rules back to me and understand them, and observing their<br>> actions<br>> > in a few melee scenarios (enough to allow me to see if they can control<br>> > their shots, not poke someone in the eye with their bow, and not shoot<br>
> > arrows toward the onlookers, etc.), then I'm gonna authorize.<br>> ><br>> > Reasonable assurance using logical procedures based on actual evidence is<br>> > what we need. Any more
than that and we DO make it too hard, especially<br>> if<br>> > it is merely a response to perceived political pressure.<br>> ><br>> > YIS,<br>> ><br>> > Kenneth<br>> ><br>> > <br>
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