[ANSTHRLD] online OP

[tmcd at panix.com]

On Mon, 19 May 2008, Jay Rudin <rudin at ev1.net> wrote:
> Daniel replied to me:
>
> > > Similarly, the code of "Yes" doesn't mean "This person has a
> > > registered name," but rather "You can stop here and not check the
> > > Armorial, because this is the registered form of the name."  That's
> > > always up-to-date except for the relatively few people who change
> > > the registered form of their name.
> >
> > In December 2007, there were 11 name changes (including
> > reconsiderations of registrations and corrections)
> > out of 75 primary name actions total.
> >
> > November 2007: 6 name changes out of 64.
>
> True, but to determine how rare name changes are, the proper
> comparison is not to the number of registrations that months, but to
> the total number of names registered, that being the pool of people
> with a registered name to change.
>
> (To be more precise, the comparison should be to *active* people
> with registered names.  People who have left Ansteorra have no
> effect on the issue)

I've not thought about it deeply, but you might be able to come up
with an expected lifetime of a name if the levels are approximately
steady and if names are radioactive.  (Poisson distribution?  That
could be simulated pretty easily, actually, so I wouldn't have to drag
out old statistics textbooks.)

In any event, my point is that, while somewhat rare, the number cannot
be neglected.

Danet Lincoln
-- 
Tim McDaniel; Reply-To: tmcd at panix.com