group numbers was NR - Principality or Not?

[Deborah Sweet/soc/cas/Okstate]

Sir Barn stated:
>>5)Over the last five or so years the SCA has been undergoing a steady
drop in
>>membership.  This Kingdom has been losing the equivalent to a Shire a
year in
>>population.  All of the groups in the North have been fluctuating at a
pretty
>>steady basis and in some cases recruitment efforts right now are marginal
at
>>best.  We get some new members, but we lose an equal number of older
members
>>for different reasons, ie, moving, politics, arguing, or just get tired
of it
>>and go on.  These are facts.

Ld Etienne said:
>I would have to look at the data to confirm but I'll accept this.  Of
>course, if there are groups losing membership then maybe we need
>something different because the status quo is not accomplishing
>enough.  A principality may not be the answer; but it might be a
>catalyst.

     Ah, I knew someone had mentioned group numbers in a post, but I
couldn't remember who had said it. Using the new numbers that Sir Burke
posted yesterday, I've done more figuring using the previous 9 years worth
of numbers.  I then compared these numbers in two different fashions: 1)
using the 1991 number as the base for either growth or decrease in a groups
size and 2) using the ten year average number for each group as the base of
whether or nor a group had experienced growth or decline.

     The numbers show that yes, there are fluctuations, (there always will
be). Some of the groups have been experiencing a decline in numbers since
1991: Eldern Hills and Wiesenfeuer. Falcon's Ridge and Rundel both started
in 1995, and have been experiencing a decline ever since. Namron has gone
through a cycle of decline, growth, decline and is almost back at their
1991 number. However, Wastelands, Brad Leah, Mooneschadowe, and Northkeep
have all basically experienced a growth in their numbers over the past ten
years.  And there is an incipient canton of Northkeep in Ponca City for
more growth.

     So that makes an interesting counterpoint to the fact that many of the
proponents of a principality seem to live in the thriving groups of the
North, and that those against a principality seem to be in the groups that
have suffered declining population. As always, there are exceptions -- but
that's how I'm seeing it, at least.

     Once the 2000 Census comes out, I suppose we could check the numbers
of OKC versus Tulsa to see if there was a similar modern decrease in
population of OKC, but that will still be awhile. If the modern numbers
don't compare, then it must be a factor of the differences between how
Northkeep & Wiesenfeuer recruit, demo, tourney, politic & etc. (I'm not
trying to point fingers, but the numbers tell the tale.....)

Estrill
(Torture the data until it confesses.)




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