[Northern] Running some numbers

[Vortmax]

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Having visited Sir Burke's page in regards to the unofficial Principality poll, I was particularly interested in the population page and decided to do a bit of analysis.

Over the past 10 years, the Northern Region has increased it's population by 48 members, or 16.3%.  However, this growth was not a stable growth.  Instead it was marred by rapid rises and both somwhat quick and steady declines over that period.

Here are the numbers, sorted by current membership totals:

           Growth/Decline
 Date    over previous year
------   ------------------
 2/ 1/93     - 9.5%
 2/ 1/94      19.5%
12/31/94     -10.7%
12/31/95      22.2%
12/31/96       2.9%
12/31/97     - 2.8%
12/31/98     - 6.9%
12/31/99     - 6.5%
12/31/00      13.2%

(A chart of the population and it's growth/decline is available at http://phelan.ou.edu/vortmax/northpop.gif )

As one can clearly see, the "growth" that Northern Ansteorra experienced over the past 10 years is not steady.  Northern Ansteorra has also had one stronghold go inactive (Falcon's Ridge) and three incipient shires cease to exist (Bison's Run, Loch Wyndt, and Rothundburg).

The most "stable" groups that remained appeared to be Wiesenfeur and the Wastelands (did not deviate much in the past five years).  The fastest growing group appears to be Northkeep with two significant growth spurts:  53.8% in 1995 and 28% in 2000.  In fact, Northkeep accounted for most of the region's growth over the past six years by going from 52 members at the end of 1994 to 96 members at the end of 2000, and accounted for 44 of the regions 58-member growth over that timespan.

Given the lack of sustained overall growth in this region and the current population level, I personally don't believe this region could support a Principality at this time.  If the region begins to show sustained growth throughout all it's groups while also showing increased unity, then I might begin to change my mind.

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Lord Thomas of Weathershear

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