[NR] percentages from NORTHERN REGIONAL NAMING SURVEY...mathgeeking
Cameron Lewis
okrabbit at cox.net
Tue Jun 7 20:24:13 PDT 2011
I love geeks, they are near and dear to my heart. I don’t have a problem
adding more names to the list for folks to look over. Do you think that a 5
point scale of really like, like, neutral, dislike and really dislike, would
be enough for the next round to get rid of more names then?
I think that we should put it in the Blackstar as well (thanks Rose).
A shorter list of names and a date to have a polling in the region (or do it
at local pop meetings) for the month after it is in the Blackstar, should be
sufficient time for folks to mail in an absentee ballot if they wont be at
the meetings. We could take snail mail and they would have a month to get
that in to either me or other local landed before the determined polling.
After that take the top names and give them to the local heralds and see if
they think they should be a valid choice.
Otherwise we give this list to the heralds now and let them see what they
come up with for this next month and take their culled list to a polling.
That means that local heralds will have to volunteer NOW to do some research
THIS MONTH on a longer list.
THIS IS ONLY MY FIRST ROUND OPINION AND BRAINSTORM
What else could we try to be more efficient and reach as many of the
populace that we can?
Cassius
Baron of Wiesenfeuer
Greetings,
First, my sincere thanks to Cassius for all the data...my inner math geek is
beyond pleased.
WARNING: About to geek on math...but you can jump to the bottom of the page
(just past the row of stars ****) for the top 15 (my cut).
***************************START GEEKING**********************************
Since EVERY name had a "Dislike" of 30% or greater (and only 2 names had a
"Like" greater than 30%), I expect that most people voted "Like" for what
they wanted, and "Dislike" for most everything else. So, I'm not going to
chop any of them off until the end...all the names go in the hopper. I think
its better to let the math work.
If you treat the votes as: Yes (+1), No (-1), and Don't Care (0), then you
can score and rank the list...Ignore Neutral.
If you treat the votes as: Yes (+2), No (-2), and Can Live With (1), then
you can score and rank a second list...Positive Neutral.
If you assume that Can Live With (+2) is more important than Yes (1) or No
(-1), then you can score and rank a third list...Least Contentious. This
weighting assumes that "Neutral" equals "Can Live With".
Of course, there is always the "Most Liked" list and the "Least Disliked"
list...but a name with a lot of "Likes" AND a lot of "Dislikes" means a lot
of disputes.
That's five lists...all different but remarkably similar as it turns out. In
fact, the top 15 (28% of the overall list) are the same collection across
all five lists with two exceptions: a) Ebenen is #17 in "Most Liked" but top
4 for everything else and b) Moralor is #16 in "Least Disliked" and #21 in
"Least Contentious". Overall, the result is rather good from a statistical
standpoint.
So, for your consideration (and possibly amusement), I give you the
composite rack and stack (sorted by average placement in all 5 lists):
Most Least
Name Avg (2/1/-2) (1/0/-1) (1/2/-1) Liked Disliked
Hrithmarc 1 1 1 7 1 2
Hastmark 2 3 2 3 2 3
Cyrmoden 3 4 3 2 5 4
Ebenen 4 2 4 1 17 1
Midgrens 5 5 5 4 12 5
Quivara 6 7 6 8 9 7
Styringeard 7 6 7 5 14 6
Norchester 8 9 8 11 4 9
Biornrice 9 8 9 6 13 8
Northunor 10 10 10 12 10 10
Reodweald 11 13 11 14 7 13
Morland 12 11 14 9 15 11
Axia 13 12 13 13 11 12
Glomeval 14 14 12 15 8 14
Moralor 15 15 15 21 6 16
Again, I made assumptions when I developed these weighting schemes.
Hopefully, I didn't unduly bias the outcome...but that's why I took the
average of 5 different ones. 8^)
***************************END GEEKING*************************************
For everyone that either skipped the geek-out (or suffered through the
explanation), here is an alphabetical list of the top 15, which I recommend
for a more formal polling process:
Axia, Biornrice, Cyrmoden, Ebenen, Glomeval, Hastmark, Hrithmarc, Moralor,
Morland, Midgrens, Norchester, Northunor, Quivara, Reodwald, Styringeard.
On a philosophical note, 139 participants is a good cross-section for a
winnowing (54 to 15 is dropping 70%); however, it does not seem to me to be
sufficient for a final grouping (i.e., less than 10%). I believe the next
reduction...and final selection...should both be done by polling.
We can afford some time to involve more people in the selection...this time,
in person and by mail. Electronic media is a tool, not a substitute, for
personal communication and interaction.
Also, I would like to see Finnacan recite the somewhat shorter list of names
at some date in the future. Only two of the top three (Hrithmarc and
Cyrmoden) have been performed to date...and hearing these names means so
much more than letters on a page.
Regards,
Tadhg
...brick by brick
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