[Sca-cooks] Period statistics? (LONG)

[Laura C. Minnick]

Ok- for the record, my Merriam-Webster (which lives on my desk, while the
OED takes up significatly more space in the other room) says:

statistics, n, pl. 1- a branch of mathematics dealing with analysis and
interpretation of masses of numerical data, 2- facts collected and arranged
in an orderly way for study.

My friends with business degrees call it 'sadistics' and whoheartedly agree
with Mark Twain's opnion that "There's lies, damned lies, and statistics."

That said...

I do believe that things such as the Domesday (hope you noticed, Padraic!)
fall into the model. Yup- great big hurkin amount of stuf written down. And
it is pointless unless you use it, and use it, William did!

It was primariliy an assessment for taxes. But the information served other
purposes as well. It gave information about what crops were grown where,
what the usual yield was, how much was sold, what kinds of animals were
held, what they were used for. There was census info- how many cottagers,
how many virgaters, how many were held by a family, how many by a single.
How many and what lands were held by women (and I was surprised at the
number when last I looked- damn lot of widows)...

William needed info on who held lands of him, where they were. Using the
info he got from teh Domesday, he and his allies could apportion lands to
Norman nobles if areas that looked ripe for rebellion. He could build
castles in areas that needed the attention. He could tell where he could
put a castle without the local abbot coming and telling him he just ruined
the land that fed the sheep that grew the wool that clothed the men that
held the tower on top of the motte that He built! He could put a garrison
near dangerous roads.

He could see where there were quite a few Saxon landholders too close
together, and demand hostages from them for their good conduct. He could
catch them in a lie- if you claimed to have oxen, but no plow, you would
likely have another assessor come by. Alot of land and no income? Why?
Perhaps your parish priest will testify to your bad luck with strange local
hailstorms?

As it is, all of the statistics in teh Domesday can be used, and could be
used, for many purposes besides taxes.

As to a predictive nature- that if much more iffy. I know that the wool
merchants in the 14th-15th c (England and Flanders mostly) kept careful
records for tracking purposes- they had an idea what to expect for next
year based on this years' yield. However, the wool merchants as well as any
business in teh middle ages, didn't have the static base to work with.
There were many more variables that we are accustomed to working with, and
our models are much too clean. When's the last time a ship full of fleeces
went down in teh Channel? The old variables of drought and disease are much
less evident in the business world today than they were then. We still have
them, but we have piped water and antibiotics.

There is another tweak to using the numbers for forecasting- at least in my
period (early 15th) you could run the risk of being accused of divination,
and or heresy. Don't forget Galileo!

As to my 'how many angels on the head of a pin' comment (meant to be
offhand and silly) Stefan, you missed a big point- you have a modern
*secular* bias that shows when you divide Theology from Reality. In the
Middle Ages, Theology  WAS Reality- there was no division whatsoever. Which
is part of what landed people like Galileo in so much trouble- when they
challenged dogma with observations based on math and natural phenomena,
they were seen as challenging TRVTH, ya know?  Yes- there was a great
theological debate as to how many angels could dance on teh head of a pin-
if I was near my books I might be able to look it up. They had similar
debates over the color of Christ's eyes, whether Adam had an umbilicus, and
whether women had souls. (Well 'Retha has soul! ;-)

I'm with Albertus Magnus, who at one point insisted that because God
created Nature, then Nature cannot lie, so his botanical observations could
not possibly threaten the Holy Church. Oddly, he left the Dominicans and
was buried in a Francsiscan robe. Gotta wonder...

At any rate, I believe that scientists and mathematicians and clerks and
taxemen in teh middle ages used statistics. What they didn't use was
graphing calculators and slimy PR guys to mess with the results.

Speaking of slimy, this little Slug needs to crawl off to bed! Nite all!

'Lainie
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Sometimes Life makes drastic changes without our permission...