[Ravensfort] Himicane Ike Question

[Paul Gilbert]

Greetings...

I had intended this to goto the entire list, but did not add the list 
address...oh well, here it is.

Check the track now....

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200809_model.html#a_topad

Ike has drawn a bead on Corpus. In my watching of the hurricane tracking
models the ones to watch are the NOGAPS, GFDL, NGFDL and GFS plots.

They seem to be the most reliable. Especially when they get as tightly
clustered as they are here.

The thing to watch now is the effect that the ridge coming in from the
NW will have on it and will it be strong and fast enough to "suck" Ike
up into a NW turn towards Houston area.

At the 4:30pm conference call from the State SOC, ground zero is
Victoria with at least a Cat 3. Hurricane forces wind will be felt
70-100km from the eye and tropical forces 120-140km out.

That can put tropical force winds in Huntsville and Austin real easy.

So much for Laurels Prize Tourney at Seawinds......

Niklas




SFT2 wrote:
> ke5zw at wt.net wrote:
>> I really doubt Ike will hit th upper coast.
>>
>> Most likely it will come in near Freeort to Corpus and drice west.
>>
>> The track will be known by Wed afternoon. That's when the SOC and
>> Jack will punch evacuattion button for the strike area ( or that's
>> what he said on the conf call at 4:30 this afternoon).
> 
> Cool. I hadn't checked on it in a while and it looks like the worst 
> we'll get is some rain, if that. Works for me.
> 
> 
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-- 
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Paul Gilbert, KE5ZW             H.E. Niklas Vasilevich
niklas at pbgilbert.net      CB,CSM,KGA,OTR,ORH,Crane,AoA
512-733-3035 Cellular             Kingdom of Ansteorra

            Society for Creative Anachronism

     Texas Dept. Of Transportation, Radio Operations
      Austin, Texas                  512-506-5141
                pgilber at dot.state.tx.us

                "The Eagle has landed"
  "Sable, a double-headed eagle, a bordure engrailed or"

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